Woven CEO Burak Ustaoğlu's 2026 Outlook: 30% Rise Expected in Housing Prices
"Woven Investment CEO Burak Ustaoğlu projects a 30% annual rise in housing prices in 2026, citing a 24.50% annual increase in the construction cost index. Reminding that Turkish overseas property investment reached $2.6 billion in 2025, he advised investors to act before credit easing materializes in the second half of the year."
Rising Costs Push Housing Prices Higher
According to the latest data, the construction cost index increased by 1.17% on a monthly basis and 24.50% on an annual basis. Ustaoğlu noted that this upward trend directly affects housing supply costs and is changing contractors' pricing behavior. Forecasting that the rise in housing prices will continue into 2026, he stated that prices could increase by around 30% annually, especially as demand picks up in the second half of the year. The CEO also projected that per-square-meter cost increases would similarly fall in the 25–30% range, emphasizing that rough construction costs in luxury projects have reached between TRY 25,000 and TRY 35,000.
Real Estate Becoming a "Safe Haven" Once Again
Ustaoğlu noted that investors who had recently profited from instruments such as gold and deposit interest rates are beginning to shift back to real estate, describing it as a safe haven that always preserves its value. He projected that demand, which had been suppressed for the past 2–3 years, will rebound sharply this year, with the trend becoming even more pronounced in the second half.
Bodrum Prices Near Land Cost Levels
Cautioning investors on location and quality, Ustaoğlu drew attention to Bodrum as a case in point. Noting that some projects in Bodrum are currently being sold at prices close to land cost levels, he said: 'If contractors were to acquire the same land today and redevelop it, they couldn't deliver the product at these prices.' He added that this situation is a result of the two-year slowdown, but that prices will rise as demand increases.
Second-Half Expectations for Credit Access
Ustaoğlu stated that current mortgage rates and steps taken by the BDDK (Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency) carry the potential to stimulate the market, but that banks' processes for providing financing have not yet fully accelerated. The CEO said they expect genuine easing in credit access to materialize in the second half of 2026, and advised investors to act before that window: 'Waiting for the second-half rally could mean missing the investment opportunity; today's prices are far more valuable in terms of capital appreciation.'
Record $2.6 Billion in Overseas Housing Investment
Reminding that Turkish investors' overseas property investments reached $2.6 billion by the end of 2025, Ustaoğlu identified three core drivers behind this trend:
- Currency Risk and Asset Diversification: The desire to protect existing assets.
- High Rental Yields: Short payback periods of 10–12 years and tax advantages, particularly in markets like Dubai.
- Lifestyle Planning: Obtaining residency rights and freedom of movement through Golden Visa programs in countries like Greece.
